Posts Tagged ‘oil’
Episode 227: Weekly Economic Update(10/27/2012)…
Europe, China, and America. The three largest economies in the world. Europe and China are either in recession/downturn or heading in that direction. That leaves American with a sub-par 2% GDP gain for the third quarter. Which inevitably, will be revised down later in the year.
Today I will discuss the horrible earnings reports coming in on Wall Street, Apple, Netflix, and European PMI for the previous month. Yes. I still think that the American economy will see a negative GDP print for the fourth quarter of this year. No changes in the world markets have changed my opinion for an upcoming downturn.
3rd quarter earnings are coming in lower than expected on Wall Street
Two individual Stocks to look at Apple and Netflix
Both companies have made bad decisions
3rd quarter GDP in at 2% growth – look for revisions down later this year
Stocks could be entering a correction phase
If true – there could be buying opportunities for silver and gold
Possibly could see gold in the $1500 range and silver flirt with $26.00
Oil futures will probably be dragged down as well
Expect to see gas prices to fall in the range of $2.75 to $2.50 in must parts of the country(expect Kalifornia)
If there is war with Iran, throw what I just said about oil futures out the window
Forum Is Now Open – Poor Man Prepper Forum
Episode 147: Oil Prices, Food Prices, And A Tired Consumer…
Oil prices and food prices are going up. What can be done to avoid being stuck between the rock and a hard place? Overall, not much. But a few adjustments can be made here and there to save a little cash and buy extra time. That’s right folks, economically we are on borrowed time because of too much debt in the overall economic system.
I feel over the next couple of years the American consumer will continue to be pushed as we try to deleverage. Unfortunately, deleveraging is hard to accomplish with diminishing/stagnant incomes and inflation eating into our wallets, like a disease. Today we will talk about the plight of the American consumer and what needs to be done now, by taking of advantage of the present.
Times are rough now to be sure
Drought, heat, equality markets driving oil prices up, and food prices going up
We are still in a better position then the rest of the world
Especially Europe – The Europeans are getting hammered right now, particularly Spain and Greece
Preparing gives us time for the economic disaster that will happen in America once the system becomes overloaded with too much debt – Critical Mass
Save when you can and cut back on your spending – pay off debt
Save gas by not taking pleasure trips – driving around for no reason
Why buy more clothes – I bet you have a closet full of clothes that have not be worn for many years – I know that I have – but these days I hardly buy clothes with the exception of socks, underwear, and undershirts
Don’t buy that gadget – do you really need it?
We need to be smart why we still have time – that will always make the future better in one way or the other
Forum Is Now Open – Poor Man Prepper Forum
Basic Prep Items:
Ramen noodles: 1 box = $2.25
Rice: 1 1 lb bag = .80 cents
Peanut butter: 1 jar = $2.60
Oatmeal: 1 box = $1.60
Toilet Paper: 1 package(4 rolls) = .90 cents
Total For Today: $8.15 dollars before taxes
Peanut Butter Expiration Date:
Making sure that my tank is topped off. That was $20 worth of fuel to get me full.
No Bug Out Bag Items this week. Trying to save up for a gun show in a couple of weeks. I might pickup an old, but larger ALICE pack. We shall see.
I have talked about high inflation in Iran for a while now. Well, here is proof. Per Reuters/Yahoo News.
Iran is boosting the monthly cash payments it gives to its citizens by more than fifty percent, the Iranian Labour News Agency reported, as soaring inflation and the depreciating Rial continue to bite deep into the national economy.
The Iranian government implemented the first-stage of its Targeted Subsidies Plan towards the end of 2010 in an attempt wean the country off more generous food and fuel subsidies and so cut government spending. At the time, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called it the “biggest economic plan of the past 50 years”.
This article was written by Marcus George and the rest of it can be found here.
The economic conditions in Iran might deteriorate to the point so that Israel might not have to openly attack Iran. Of course, the Iranian government might preempt a conflict and that would leave the US and Israeli governments no choice, but to attack. The economic situation in Iran is deteriorating rapidly. And it’s going be a friggin nightmare to get that inflation under control. So, what will a desperate government do when their population gets tired of taking funny money payments that is damn near worthless? As my history teacher use to say, “desperate people, do desperate things.”
Oh, in case you forgot. If we go to war with Iran you might want to exchange your hats for one of these.
Cause the crap will have truly hit the fan.
Marcus George. Yahoo.com/Reuters.com, Yahoo News/Reuters. http://news.yahoo.com/iran-boost-monthly-cash-payments-inflation-bites-113505091.html, accessed March 26, 2012.
Photo curtsey of Jiri Hodan.
Another fuel update.
One more fuel stop and I will be topped off. I can go into maintenance mode at that point. That means a mid-week fueling to make sure that the gas tank on my pick-up truck stays topped off.
Experience in 2008:
The last fuel update I posted a video from YouTube found here. This video shows a long line of vehicles waiting to refuel. Unfortunately, there had been two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico during the late summer of 2008. These hurricanes forced several refineries to shut down in the gulf and consequently, severely limited the amount of fuel coming into the southeastern portion of the U.S..
As a result, well, long lines of vehicles at the pump. And of course bickering and fighting between Americans who were unaccustomed to waiting. Fortunately for the citizens of the Charlotte/Gastonia area, this event only went on for a couple of weeks.
This is what I learned for my experience 3 1/2 years ago:
A full tank of gas is a must. This is something that I have not practiced until recently.
If possible, have extra gas at your home in a storage shed. Of course, this is difficult for apartment dwellers, so keep those tanks full.
Look into an auxiliary tank added onto your vehicle. This could be pricey.
Own a diesel vehicle. Fuel storage is much safer and some diesel vehicles get far better fuel mileage than their gasoline counterparts.
During a fuel crunch, refuel during the middle of the night. I am talking about the 2:30-3:30 am time period. The dead of night. Hardly nothing is going on during this time. That means during a crunch there will probably be few people out looking for fuel. But.
If you decide to go out during the dead of night, check to see if there is gas at that station. Call ahead. If there is, go for it. But.
Make sure that the station is located in an okay part of town. After a couple of weeks people will start to get a little weird when the normality of Americana is interrupted. So always, be careful!
Some current scouting of gas stations in your area my be warranted during the 2:30AM-3:30AM time frame. This will give you a little familiarity of what your neighborhood looks and feels like during these early morning hours.
Current Economic Conditions:
I saw a chart today from Mish Shedlock’s site and it got me thinking about oil consumption. This chart is not the chart from Mish’s site, but is actually data from EIA(Energy Information Administration). The chart from Mish’s site was provided by a reader and I am not going to include it, but if you get the chance, go check it out.
With this chart, I wanted everybody to look at the last red dot on the chart. That shows a slight uptick in oil consumption. That is usually indicative of an economy picking up speed. This is an annually chart that unfortunately does not have the 2011 data plotted on the chart.
Now, take a look at this chart.
This is a monthly oil consumption chart from the EIA and shows 2011 data. Look at how oil consumption goes down after mid-2010. Okay, see the drop off. Well that drop off is stimulus money exiting the economy.
Now, before any Keynesian fools start shouting about how more stimulus needs to be thrown into the economy to get us back on track, stop. Stop and shut up. The chart speaks for itself. That uptick of oil consumption is the result of trillions of dollars thrown into the economy.
Yes, not only the 800 billion dollar stimulus package, but all the other bailouts included. Remember Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Remember the trillions of dollars that the Fed used to buy toxic assets. Remember quantitative easing part 2.
If oil consumption is an indication of how well the economy is doing, then all of that money pumped into the system has to be looked at as a failure. Remember, it’s the future generations that has to pay for all of this money pumped into our economy. Let’s think of our children first and not ourselves.
This is a fuel update. Yesterday I dropped $25.00 dollars into my tank. That brought my tank up to 3/4 full. Friday I will drop about $12.00 dollar more into my tank and that will bring me closer to a full tank.
The next refill will be Tuesday of next week and that will definitely top my tank off. After that, I go into maintenance mode. That means two stops for fuel a week. This will keep my tank topped off.
Before yesterdays fueling.
The possibility that a war between Iran and Israel is becoming far more likely everyday. That would be bad folks. I mean economic shattering type of bad. Oil prices would go through the roof. Of course the US will probably tap our strategic reserves and that would take out a little fear in the markets, but not much.
Hostilities could spread to other middle eastern states. The dreaded “T” word would spread through all the media outlets. Then there is the question of what other countries would do, like China. China gets part of its oil from Iran. Would China set idly by as one of their energy sources is taken off-line?
So why is having a full tank of gas important?
This video is from 2008. My local community was hammered by gas shortages due to a couple of hurricanes. The Charlotte/Gastonia area did not get clobbered by a direct hit. No, we were cut off because of refiners shutting down in the Gulf of Mexico. I will write a little more about what happened here in 2008 this weekend.
Folks, consider this post a warning. If possible, top those fuel tanks of now. War with Iran would probably mean more lines at the gas station, but likely on a national level.
Note: Voice goes away by the end of the show. Sorry.
Welcome to the new site. The content that can be found on this site before today’s post was transferred from another site that I blog on, Learn or Lose Now. I am keeping the old prep information that I developed at Learn or Lose Now at that site as well for the time being.
I decided earlier this week that the preparedness content that I was developing needed its on venue. So, that is why this site is here today. Please keep in mind that both sites are going through changes at the time and there are going to be some growing pains until both become fully operational.
Friday I heard an interesting podcast about the economy that was posted on Zero Hedge. The interview was between Chris Martenson and Erik Townsend Mr. Townsend has been touring the world and his insights about the economy is worth noting. That podcast can be found here and here.
The information provided about inflation definitely perked my ears. Particularly since this is occurring in Australia(listen to podcast). That information is worth looking into and I will probably do a follow-up on that topic later this week to see if I can confirm.
The problem with all of this inflation is that we are not immune from it. As a reminder, the CEO of Wal-Mart warned last year that we could expect high inflation. Curtsey of the USA Today
Still, inflation is “going to be serious,” Wal-Mart U.S. CEO Bill Simon said during a meeting with USA TODAY’s editorial board. “We’re seeing cost increases starting to come through at a pretty rapid rate.”
Anyway, that is something to keep in mind folks. Keep an eye out for higher prices, plus how people react. On with today’s show.
Today’s Show Notes:
- New site-still under construction
- Thinking about storage for food
- Price increases-duh. Guess what, other countries are getting slammed with inflation outside of U.S.. Take advantage of current prices now. Reminder, Wal-Mart CEO talked about high inflation coming our way last year.
- Topping off that tank, with separate article an updates about this coming soon.
- And items bought this week for the basic prep.
- I am thinking about gardening. I picked up a couple of books this weekend at the library for urban gardening. I am an apartment dweller-but a lot of potential here.
Basic Prep This Week:
I have been looking for ways to get cheap protein into my basic prep and try to diversify the type of protein being added. That is why the potted meat has been added. I jokingly labeled it as mystery meat in the photo caption. Cause you really don’t know for sure what is in it. But, there is 11 grams of protein in that can and they only cost .35 cents a can.
- ramen noodles = 2.20 dollars
- oatmeal = 1.60 dollars
- 1 16oz jar peanut butter = 2.18 dollars
- 1 cans Tuna = .64 cents
- 2 cans potted meat = .70 cents
- 1 16oz bag or rice = .78 cents
- toilet paper = .85 cents
- Total For Today = $8.95 Before Taxes
No Bug Out Bag Updates This Week
Jayne O’Donnell, usatoday.com, USA Today, 2012. http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/retail/2011-03-30-wal-mart-ceo-expects-inflation_N.htm, accessed March 4, 2012.
Show format inspired by Jack Spirko at the Suvival Podacast.
I hope everyone is doing great today. Today we are going to take a look at small towns across the country and see how the are dealing with the present day life in America. All of the stories that found today were located in the Midwest or the Northeast.
Today’s Show Notes:
- Local hardware making a comeback?
- Ouch; lots of debt for a town of only two hundred seventy-seven to pay for it.
- Fracking ban upheld by a local judge.
- Is fracking causing earthquakes?
- Did the Obama administration kill the Keystone Pipeline Project because of a possible earthquake caused by fracking.
- Wired news in your home town.
And problems in my home town with new conference center that was just opened. Well it is now closed until further notice due to conflicting engendering reports. Conference center cost 10 million dollars.
Update: unfortunately, I have still not attended a local town or county commissioners meeting. However, this weekend I intend to go through the recent meetings notes and see if I can find out anymore information about the closing the conference centers closing. This new center was supposed to be a huge economic plus for the town. I hope we do not end up like our fellow citizens in Schneider. Broke and on the hood for a lot of cash.
My trip to a local bookstore and my impressions.
- Will the small book store survive while the big box stores close their chains? Probably, at least for a while longer as they serve a specific niche books and convenience.
My Town-Gastoina, NC:
Conference Center Closed-Lots of money down the drain.
The Book Rack-Small franchise were I bought a couple of used books. Not a huge selection, but well organized. Nice management and very helpful. Worth checking out.
Crappy picture, sorry.
Morning Ladies and Gents,
Okay folks, no reason to hide. It is not like we could anyway. If you have to go to work, or just get around, high gas prices looks like they are here to stay for the foreseeable future.
Gas prices for Americans; well they suck. Keep in mind that this data is old, as there had not been an update over the last week. From Reuters dated Feb. 12, 2012.
The average price for a gallon of gasoline in the United States rose nearly 12 cents in the past three weeks to about $3.51, due in part to higher prices for North Sea crude oil, according to the nationwide Lundberg Survey.
Ouch. The full article is here. Hold your hats cause it gets better, errrr worse.
A war with Iran seems to be getting more likely everyday. If that happens exchange your hats for helmets. In the meantime Iran just sent a big F-You to Europe. Per Reuters again.
“Exporting crude to British and French companies has been stopped … we will sell our oil to new customers,” spokesman Alireza Nikzad was quoted as saying by the Ministry of Petroleum website.
According to the article the EU has already started to cut back consumption from Iranian imports in anticipation of future sanctions against Iran. The sanctions are aimed at persuading Iran to quit their nuclear power program. The rest of the article can be found here.
I don’t know what is going to happen between all the parties involved here. Looks like a lot of posturing for the time being and hopefully it says that way, as a war would be bad. Unfortunately, the markets are not taking kindly to this news. WTI(West Texas intermediate) prices are now at $105 a barrel and Brent prices are at $119. Here is a link, go check it out.
Think of all the exercise that is waiting for us. Hello smaller waist line.
Today I am going to cover what I have accumulated so far for this month. I went from having virtually nothing in my kitchen cabinets to actually having some food tucked away. Additionally, I am going to talk about a post from earlier this week in regards to nickels going the way of the dodo and why I am stocking up and you should too.
- Rolling over food that you did not eat during the week into your lager. I say 50% of the food that I have in storage now is from food that I did not eat during the week, especially beans.
- Going to the bank and asking for nickels, my experience.
- Putting just a little bit of cash away every week.
- An article from a website describing possible energy scenarios for the future.
- VP Biden charges us rent. Thanks Joe. NOT!
- My take on global warming/climate change.
Links for today’s show:
Basic Prep for this week(excluding rice-I did not eat the rice from last week so I just rolled it over into my lager. I only add prices to food that I specifically bought for prepping).
- 1 11oz can of beans = .44 cents
- 1 16oz jar peanut butter = 2.18 dollars
- 1 12-pack of Ramen Noodles = 1.10 dollars(I exchanged out the 6 packs from last week for 1 complete box. So, in reality I only added 6 bags of noodles this week, that is why the price is at 1.10 instead of 2.20 for the entire box. From now on I will just by them by the case to keep things simple).
- 2 cans of tuna = 1.28 dollars
- Total for today = $5.00 before taxes
Bug Out Bag prep for this week.
- 1 Toothbrush = 3.00
- 1 container toothpaste = .94 cents(got a screaming deal on this-2 for 1 sale)
- toothbrush container = 1 dollar
- cue tips w/ container-no price for the cue tips as I have had the container for years and I just grabbed some tips from the bathroom and placed in the container.
- Total for today = $4.94 before taxes
Total invested for today = $9.94
Total Food Prep For This Month:
- Keep in mind some of the food added here was rolled over to the lager because I did not eat it during the week. Also I had a little food start with(2 bags of noodles, 2 cans of tuna). As you can see I do not eat that many beans during the week, lol. Four cans were added specifically to the basic prep and the rest are just rollover items.
Total expenditures for month:
- Basic Prep = $16.29 before taxes
- Bug Out Bag = $15.43 before taxes
Total for the year: $31.72